PowerLines by Linnea Brush

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PowerLines by Linnea Brush

Announcing Technologies "On Schedule" - Page 2

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Power-system-in-Package (PSiP) is another emerging market that could see increased sales due to new control systems and Gallium-nitride (GaN) materials, among other things. Dc building power was just a blip on the radar five years ago, but the adoption of LED lighting and cheap photovoltaic systems is making this power architecture a serious threat to traditional ac-powered building architectures.

The smart grid is seen as an enabler for many emerging power technologies, but I think the opposite is true: it’s the establishment of new technologies like digital power that are enabling new applications like the smart grid. Without digital control, advanced power and energy measurement, and advanced materials like GaN, many of these markets would be flailing. Knowing where the value of power lies is, therefore, critical to the ultimate success of trends like the smart grid.

All of this moot, however, if the trends are mis-identified or inaccurately projected. There is no way to know with 100% certainty, of course. But the more data points at your disposal, the better your chances of seeing where the markets are and how they are likely to evolve over time. Darnell did this with our 2006 report on “Energy Harvesting Technologies and Energy Storage,” which correctly predicted that by 2012, energy harvesting systems, combined with thin-film micro batteries, would be entering large-scale production.

This is not a trivial process. You can’t just choose a new technology and assume it will take off. In that sense, the ability to look beyond hype is just as important as knowing if the hype is real. In 2004, Darnell made a somewhat unpopular pronouncement on the viability of micro fuel cells – that they would not be able to replace Li-ion batteries in portable electronic devices, such as laptop computers and cell phones. Recent reports have confirmed that fuel cell companies are no longer pursuing these markets and are instead focusing on applications such as combined heat and power (which, coincidentally, Darnell also predicted several years ago).

Emerging markets are not always significant, either to power supply manufacturers or system makers. And even if they are, they don’t always offer opportunities for power. Pulling out the important developments in power system design, and how power architectures might change, is just as much an art as a science (even if engineers might disagree). Once the critical pieces have been identified, they have to be evaluated correctly and then forecast based on business factors specific to the industry. And all this in a dynamically changing economic environment!

Presenting forecasts “on schedule” is a privilege that is earned. It reminds me of the old John Houseman commercials, where he said, “They make money the old-fashioned way; they earn it.” It may be counter-intuitive, but accurately predicting new markets requires that particular old-fashioned approach.

More Information on the Web:

Power & Energy Measurement: Worldwide Market Forecasts
DC-DC Converter ICs: Power System in Package, Worldwide Technology Trends, Forecasts and Competitive Environment
DC Building Power

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We would like to hear your comments on the topics discussed in this column. We welcome the opportunity to publish opposing opinions. Please email Jeff Shepard at jshepard@darnell.com.

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