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Energy and Power Electronics can Reshape Global Trends

January 09, 2017 by Jeff Shepard

The "Global Trends" report, unveiled yesterday, is produced every four years by the U.S. National Intelligence Council. It is released just before the inauguration of a new or returning president. The council is tasked with helping to shape U.S. strategic thinking. A couple of the predictions from the just-released report are quite interesting for those involved with photovoltaics (and other clean energy technologies) and power electronics.

In 2032, it is predicted: "IMF says African Economic Growth Rate Surpasses Asia." The report cites availability of cheaper solar power panels and home batteries which "have revolutionized energy" and desalination technology that has stabilized food production.

The trends are global. Mega cities are sinking, about half of the world's aquifers are being bled dry, and in 20 years, half of the world's population will experience water shortages and in some places severe shortages, said Rod Schoonover, director of environment and natural resources, National Intelligence Council, at a webcast panel about the report.

Water shortages and pollution probably will undermine the economic performance and health conditions of populations worldwide, including those of major developing countries. Economic output would suffer if countries do not have enough clean water to generate electrical power or to support manufacturing and resource extraction. Water problems—added to poverty, social tension, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, gender inequality, and weak political institutions—contribute to social disruptions that can prompt state failures.

New investments in energy and technologies offer an important opportunity to reduce the risk of adverse climate change, although most of these will require substantial funding and years of effort to deliver benefits. These include clean-energy sources and enabling technologies, such as offshore wind energy, solar cells, distributed power generation, and energy storage; improvements in combustion sources such as biofuels and waste-to-energy; and mitigation through carbon-capture and sequestration.

Reducing carbon output will threaten entrenched economic interests and disrupt longstanding communities built around hydrocarbon industries.

Ocean energy, renewable synthetic fuels, next-generation nuclear power, methane hydrates, wireless energy transmission, and energy harvesting are promising but far from maturity. Industrialized biotechnology can contribute to the manufacturing and extraction sectors, food and health security, and defense.